Rabu, 07 Maret 2012

Nieman Journalism Lab

Nieman Journalism Lab


Blair Levin on national broadband and its implications for the future of journalism

Posted: 06 Mar 2012 10:00 AM PST

“Innovation is always about the adjacent possible,” Blair Levin told me. “It’s about two things kind of combining in ways we had not thought. It’s not about great leaps, but it’s about that combination. I think we’re going to see that on devices in a variety of ways. And by the way, the power of broadband is the power of that adjacent possible, because it enables all kinds of collaboration that didn’t exist.”

You may have heard of Levin in his role as the head of the group at the Federal Communications Commission that created the National Broadband Plan. Levin was executive director of the Omnibus Broadband Initiative, an effort to bring faster, more accessible Internet across every corner of the United States. The plan was released almost two years ago this month, with recommendations to Congress on how a more robust broadband could affect education, job growth, and innovation in areas like health care and research. Levin left the FCC in 2010 and now is a communications and society fellow at the Aspen Institute. He recently visited Cambridge to talk about national broadband and spectrum policy in a seminar at Harvard Law School.

I spoke with Levin about the implementation of the National Broadband Plan and his view that access is as much about our society’s values as it is about laying out the plumbing for a better internet across the country. Levin also shared his thoughts on how broadband is vital to sharing information within communities and its role in the future of journalism. An edited transcript of our conversation follows.

Justin Ellis: One of the things I was really interested in — and I want to make sure I’m getting the phrase right — was high-performance knowledge exchange, the phrase you use. Explain a little bit more what that is.
Blair Levin: So if you think about what we do as a society, a huge — and more importantly increasing — amount is exchange information. Basically all of education is about exchanging information. Medicine is largely about exchanging information. I suppose surgery is doing a physical thing, but most of it is about exchanging information. But even things like what Walmart does, it’s not all about just making a good and putting it on the shelf. What goods do you use, and what do you stockpile — things like that are all tasks for which, if you improve the information flow, you improve the outcome.

Think of it this way: A textbook is an example of low-performance knowledge exchange. You print up five million textbooks in Texas. You give all kids the same textbook. If it’s wrong, it takes five years to correct. There’s no way to assess whether it works. Think of a high-performance exchange analogue, which would be using a Kindle or iPad where you’re reading a history lesson. Maybe you don’t quite understand it — you click a link and you can watch a video. You click a link and you get a tutor. You click a link and you get a Facebook group talking about that chapter…That’s an example of high-performance knowledge exchange. We use knowledge to improve how we do everything that we do.

Justin Ellis: How do you think journalism fits into that exchange? Is it simply the sharing of information or is it, as we’ve seen, that journalism has become more collaborative? How does it fit into what you envision?
Blair Levin: Journalism is all about knowledge exchange. It’s 100 percent about knowledge exchange — that’s what it does. The problem with journalism today is not the knowledge exchange, it’s the business model. Because the old revenue models were based on exchanging information in ways that are not as efficient. Classified ads in a newspaper are not as efficient as Craigslist or Angie’s List for a lot of different reasons. So journalism has to find a business model.

Having said that, the tools are fantastic. If you can figure out the business model, the tools for, as you say, collaboration are tremendous. And the access to things that used to take a reporter three months of dogged research to do but are now on a database where someone’s sitting at a terminal can find it in two minutes. Think about how Google search has changed the way we look for information. That’s what journalists used to do. There’s a lot of benefits to this — but unfortunately it’s the business model that’s at risk.

Justin Ellis: In terms of the current landscape of how people access information, either through wired — desktops, laptop computers — or mobile devices, where would you describe we are now and where do we need to be ?
Blair Levin: I think there are four dimensions to the problem: Devices, applications, networks, and people. The device side is fantastic. The improvements in devices since the development of the iPhone, the ability of anybody intuitively to utilize a device to get information, there’s massive improvements and huge implications for everything we do. That’s great — no problem there. And, by the way, the United States does not lead in manufacturing, but it does lead in the development and design of these things. On the application side, I think we’re pretty good. Again, the United States leads and that’s great.

But I think that we constantly see what we might think of as applications or content, whether it be a Khan Academy or — I’m on the board of a nonprofit that’s creating software for social work, and I think there’s a lot of creativity and innovation in those spaces. I think on the people side, we still have a significant portion of the population that is not Internet-literate, device-literate. It’s not literate, actually — that’s part of the problem. That interestingly changes in a few years as the devices become oral devices — in other words, they don’t require typing. You can talk into them. It’ll be interesting to see how that changes, but I think we have some work to do there.

I think we’re falling behind, but I think instead of looking at it as a price problem, we ought to look at it as a value problem.

On the network side, we’re pretty far along, I think, in terms of the development of what I think of as first-generation broadband. And we’re about to get wireless what I would think of as first-generation broadband. Where we as a country are falling behind is thinking about bandwidth as a strategic input to certain kinds of new industries.

Justin Ellis: The availability vs. access issue. Talk about how those are different in communities, because it seems to me that those are things that could be confused when we talk about the ability of a person to have broadband.
Blair Levin: One: Is there a network that will deliver broadband to a home? When we looked at the broadband plan, we had heard anecdotally that this was both an urban and rural problem. Rural is understandable — it’s always been because it’s more expensive to build a network when you’re sharing it over fewer people. It’s a density problem, fundamentally, on a per-mile basis. We had heard that it’s also an urban problem, that there are low-income areas where there wasn’t broadband. That turned out to be a very, very small problem and that problem I believe will be addressed. The rural one the market will not address on its own, and we spend billions of dollars every year to fix it…But I don’t actually think we will fix it. And the reason I say that is that the people who control most of the lines that have not been upgraded to broadband are saying, both publicly and privately, that the reform wasn’t sufficient to give them an incentive to fix it.
Broadband can contribute mightily to helping us understand the world, because it gives us access to information we wouldn’t have otherwise, but there still is that human element. And the problem is, if you don’t have that human element, you really miss the story.

Now on the access side, there’s approximately 20 million Americans who don’t have access to networks. There’s another 80 million who have access but don’t take it. There are a variety of different reasons — partly it’s an economic issue, and there are efforts being done to address that. Partly it’s a literacy problem, and there are some efforts there. I think we’re falling behind, but I think instead of looking at it as a price problem, we ought to look at it as a value problem.

Justin Ellis: Going forward, how do you see people’s use of devices impacting the way they receive information and how can that be reflected in broadband policy? Or is that something that can take care of itself in the market?
Blair Levin: The single biggest change is that in the old days we thought about two different kinds of uses. One was fixed — you’re at a desk looking at your computer screen. The other was mobile — you’re in a car and you’re driving. But it turns out that the biggest use today, and the iPad is a big driver of this, is what we might think of as nomadic. You’re just walking around your office, walking around your house, you’re at a Starbucks — you’re moving about, but it’s not like you’re in a car going 60 miles per hour. This has dramatic implications for how we actually configure the network and use it. So that’s a really big trend. I think there are all kinds of wonderful things going on with the ability to create devices that are friendly to a doctor walking around a hospital, or friendly to a teacher walking around a school, or a business person walking around that manages to capture and analyze information. But you never know where the right thing is going to come from.
Justin Ellis: Lastly, touching back to journalism again, do you have any ideas about how expanding broadband could perhaps lead to innovations in journalism either through the business side or through how it’s delivered?
Blair Levin: Well, there are certain things we know to be true, most of them are negative to the business model. But here are a few positive ones: First, it enables everyone to be a journalist. Distribution is no longer the issue it once was, and also access to information — there’s a lot more. Anybody has access to information. That doesn’t mean everyone’s going to be a good journalist — it just means anyone can be a journalist. So that’s a good thing.

Second, the power to collaborate is much greater — the ability of people in diverse locations to look at something and analyze it and come up with a conclusion about its meaning is very different than it once was. And so, you know, two heads can be better than one, three can be better, four can be better…So I think it enables collaboration between individuals, and that’s a good thing. The third thing is the whole data-, algorithm-based analysis. So when you are looking at government budgets, and looking at certain things which really are subject to large data sets, you can do things and analyze things faster, better…

I think that journalism, at it’s heart, is telling us the story of what’s going on, to try and tell us, “here’s something that’s important, here’s something that’s valuable.” Broadband can contribute mightily to helping us understand the world, because it gives us access to information we wouldn’t have otherwise, but there still is that human element. And the problem is, if you don’t have that human element, you really miss the story.

Live blogging #truthicon: Truthiness in Digital Media conference at Harvard

Posted: 06 Mar 2012 06:00 AM PST

We’re attending the Truthiness in Digital Media conference today at Harvard’s Berkman Center, which brings together journalists, hackers, and legal scholars to discuss the elusive values of truth and objectivity in news.

I’ll be live blogging (and tweeting #truthicon on @NiemanLab) the most interesting bits of conversation throughout the day. Watch this space.

Newspaper Death Watch

Newspaper Death Watch


A Thousand Words

Posted: 06 Mar 2012 02:06 PM PST

Inflation-Adjusted US Print Newspaper Revenues, 1950-2011

Source: Mark Perry


Selasa, 06 Maret 2012

Nieman Journalism Lab

Nieman Journalism Lab


New media, meet new old media: CmdrTaco joins WaPo Labs

Posted: 05 Mar 2012 01:30 PM PST

Rob 'CmdrTaco' Malda

Rob Malda, known to most people on the web as CmdrTaco, the founder of early nerdy community news site Slashdot, tweeted today he is joining The Washington Post as chief strategist and editor-at-large of WaPo Labs, the digital team responsible for Trove and Social Reader.

The response on Twitter can be summed up, mostly, as “Wait, really? Whoa, cool!”

It’s a surprising hire (and a marketing coup): The Washington Post is a traditional news organization, and CmdrTaco, er, Malda, built the kind of online counterculture that wants to be an antidote to mainstream media.

“Rob is a true online media pioneer,” said Vijay Ravindran, the Post’s chief digital officer, in a statement. “The number of innovations that Slashdot brought to the online news world is hard to match — from what is still the best commenting experience on the web to creating a hyper-loyal community that led to sites referenced in Slashdot posts to being ‘slashdotted.’” (Indeed, few people can claim to have created new verbs.)

Malda left Slashdot last August after 14 years to try something — he didn’t know what — new. He talked to more than 35 companies, Malda wrote today, before falling for the Post:

[CEO] Don Graham is trying to accomplish something that is a bit of a cliche these days: A startup inside an established corporation. A group that can exist at a nexus between newspapers, websites, cable networks, and TV stations and think about the big picture and the future without the normal burdens associated with a business operating at a large scale.

I exchanged emails with Malda after the announcement to learn more about his new job, which starts today; here is our conversation.

Andrew Phelps: Why WaPo Labs/The Washington Post? What’s the appeal?
Rob Malda: The Labs team is a pretty small group, focused on some more experimental stuff. The Post itself does real, important, significant, big journalism that is really important to me personally. I want to do a job that I think matters…but the labs is actually thinking about distribution, consumption, and community…the sort of stuff that I have been working on for years, but these guys are able to blend mainstream news into the whole thing. They are a bit more skunkworks and nimble. So it’s the mixture that makes me excited.
Phelps: What will you be doing there?

“Traditional Media does important things that bloggers and tweeters DON'T do. Feet on the ground, old school journalism.”

Malda: They have a number of products in various states of deploy here: Social Reader and Trove are 2 of the biggest ones. Initially I’ll be working with those teams to help bring some of my ideas to those tools, but hopefully I’ll be able to take my interests and experience in community/social news to new products.
Phelps: What new projects are planned?
Malda: Wouldn’t YOU like to know! Obviously the short term we will focus on improving Social Reader, and getting it out onto more platforms, but beyond that, I’m looking forward to seeing where we can improve the Trove news aggregation system. I think there’s something broadly appealing there.
Phelps: Is this why you “retired” from Slashdot?
Malda: I retired from Slashdot really for personal reasons. 14 years is a long time, and I really felt like it was just time for me to move on. In many ways, Slashdot was my baby that had moved on and gone to college…I needed to accept that and let it live its own life, and hope it remembers to call every few weeks and tell me how it is doing. But this job is a pretty perfect place for me: I get to exercise my experience in product design, community, and social news, but in a more mainstream news arena. I really can’t wait to start contributing!
Phelps: Thanks. That Slashdot question must be getting as old as “How do you think the iPod will fare?” :P
Malda: I stand by that quote BTW, the first iPod sucked. People forget that the original spinning wheel and the tiny capacity was super lame!
Phelps: What strikes me is that you’re very “new media,” as much as a 14-year-old website can be new, and WaPo is “old media.” I’m not implying something bad about the latter. It’s just interesting to see you traveling in the “reverse” direction. A lot of digital people leave news organizations because they can be more nimble and create new web communities (and maybe make more money) on their own. But here you are joining a large, traditional organization.
Malda: I think those are exactly the question that the WaPo Labs is trying to answer. Traditional Media does important things that bloggers and tweeters DON’T do. Feet on the ground, old school journalism. This is important stuff to everyone, even if we don’t realize it.

You could just run a newspaper into the ground, watch revenues decline, and the sun set. But what we as a culture lose in that scenario is giant. Journalism is bigger than print. And my perspective is that The Post knows that, and they are trying to figure out ways to achieve the best from micro blogging to traditional journalism. The world needs both! I bring the other perspective here. And I think I can help.

Photo of Rob Malda by webstock used under a Creative Commons license

Alt weeklies eye an AP of their own with a content exchange

Posted: 05 Mar 2012 01:00 PM PST

The Association of Alternative Newsmedia is building out a kind of wire service to allow alternative news sites to share content with each other — and maybe make some money.

The recently launched AltWeeklies Content Exchange lets papers like the Boston Phoenix, Minneapolis’ City Pages or Oakland’s East Bay Express swap stories, photos, video, or other interactive multimedia to bolster their coverage of national news. While AAN members will be able to use the material for free, outside news organizations — think newspapers, broadcast networks, or news sites — will be able to pay to license it. On a local level, the exchange would also create a platform for citizens and freelancers to offer (or sell) work to their local weekly. (Or another AAN member: The “N” switched from “Newsweeklies” to “Newsmedia” last summer, and the group has started admitting alternative online-only news sites.)

What AAN is trying to do is take advantage of scale — providing extra copy for its members as well as larger, mainstream outlets that don’t have the time or resources to cover the issues the weeklies specialize in. If the program proves successful it would not only increase the amount of journalism readers are exposed to, but it could contribute to papers revenue, said Tiffany Shackelford, executive director of the AAN.

“From my point of view, in the news association space, which is a weird animal, I think we all tend to get excited about the shiny object or huge success story and aren’t able, or can’t, give members somewhat basic and easy to use tools,” she said. “That’s what I hope this does.”

Shackelford told me the exchange doesn’t currently have set rates for content licensing; most prices will be negotiated on a case-by-case basis. If the program takes root, that could change, she said. AAN members have free access to the exchange through the dues they pay to the group. The exchange was built on Cont3nt, a larger system for connecting freelance media producers with news organizations.

“This is an opportunity to get paid from larger news organizations,” Shackelford said. “Think about things like Occupy in cities around the country, or the upcoming presidential election and the footage that could come out of that from smaller places that large organizations don’t have the money to cover any more.”

This is not the first time alternative weeklies have banded together to share their stories. One historical precedent is the Underground Press Syndicate, a network of countercultural papers that started in the mid 1960s. The group was a kind of wire service to provide reports from across the country. Wikipedia tells us:

UPS members agreed to allow all other members to freely reprint their contents, to exchange gratis subscriptions with each other, and to occasionally print a listing of all UPS newspapers with their addresses. And anyone who agreed to those terms was allowed to join the syndicate. As a result, countercultural news stories, criticism and cartoons were widely disseminated, and a wealth of content was available to even the most modest start-up paper.

The need to share stories remainss, but the tools have changed. (This content exchange won’t operate via second-class mail.) Shackelford told me the idea to create the exchange came from a desire to create a simple means of offering up the best work from weeklies around the country and make it available to their peers. Weeklies pride themselves on the time and reporting that goes into coverage that falls outside traditional media, and this is a way of promoting that work, she said. It’s also a way to tap into broader stories or trends happening in the media. For topics like Occupy or the protests on changes to union laws in states, those stories have a component that plays on the local and national level. Another example would be features, profiles, or interviews of musicians or other touring artists whose schedule may take them from one alt-weekly community to another.

Weeklies have faced many of the same challenges as their larger, mainstream counterparts in terms of circulation and revenue declines, and the content exchange could offer a means of providing additional stories at minimal costs. (If weeklies choose to take part: Many have chain ownership and already share content among sister publications; they may choose to keep that sharing in-house.) Still, Shackelford said her goal is to create a suite of tools that will allow individual weeklies to use the network to improve their bottom line. Shackelford said the AAN will also be launching an ad exchange within the next few weeks.

If the exchange takes off, and traditional media or other websites develop an appetite for the alt weeklies work, Shakelford said she could imagine the AAN taking steps to become a more formal content network by packaging material from members and syndicating that curated work.

Underground Press Syndicate image from Wikimedia Commons

Reporters’ Lab searches for ways to make reporting cheaper, without cheapening the reporting

Posted: 05 Mar 2012 07:00 AM PST

Beakers in a laboratory

Labs are all the rage in journalism these days. There’s the Drone Journalism Lab, the Globe Lab, WaPo Labs, the New York Times R&D Lab, and more.

Duke University’s newly launched Reporters’ Lab is not building miniature helicopters or magic kitchen tables but the more practical, less sexy tools that make public-affairs journalism cheaper, easier, and faster.

Sarah Cohen, a professor at Duke’s Sanford School of Public Policy and Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative reporter, is director of the center, which formally goes by the title Project for the Advancement of Public Affairs Reporting.

“Lawyers get to have software that listens to depositions and does speech recognition on them, but we don’t have anything like that that works on our interview notes,” Cohen told me. “When we can’t get public records, we end up having to write elaborate programs to take data off the web.” Why can’t reporters have better tools?

The Reporters’ Lab is a vehicle for Duke’s computational journalism initiative, a phrase popularized by Cohen, Jay Hamilton, and Fred Turner in a series of papers. Computational journalism, Cohen says, refers to the use (and study) of technology to improve journalism production.

“Public records held in audio and video are like lost records.”

For example, a newspaper reporter covering a town meeting might be expected to live-tweet, file quickly, and maybe even get reax on video. That makes it tough to take good notes. Lab developer Charlie Szymanski is building a multi-function note-taking tool called Video Notebook. The software can line up tweets with video recordings of meetings to serve as navigation aids. As the reporter starts typing to transcribe, the video stops, patiently waiting for the typing to finish.

The Lab is also working with Carnegie Mellon University to bring usable speech recognition to audio recordings. Consumer software such as Dragon NaturallySpeaking is good at adapting to one voice in a quiet environment, not so good at making sense of meetings and press conferences. Cohen wants to eventually get high-quality transcription in the hands of reporters at a low cost. (This is, like, every reporter’s dream.)

“Public records held in audio and video are like lost records,” she said. “When I go into a courthouse and do reporting, I can no longer get a transcript in any reasonable amount of time — I have to just go listen to the audio and grab an MP3 of it. There are so many public meetings and public events that are only available on audio and video. I think that’s a huge problem.”

Sarah CohenCohen’s staff at Reporters’ Lab is small, and she wants to grab on to partnerships wherever possible. Software projects are posted publicly as “developer challenges.” The public is invited to contribute ideas and code in exchange for cash prizes and even short-term fellowships at Duke. Cohen plans to host her own unconferences and hack days to drum up interest.

Another project — just an idea at the moment — would mine RSS and Twitter feeds to identify trending topics on a reporter’s beat.

“There are maybe 100 to 150 different sources that you have to monitor every day to see whether there’s news you need to cover, from government agencies to small blogs to your neighborhoods, whatever,” Cohen said. “There’s no efficient way to monitor that and kind of group everything by topic, instead of by source or date.”

The ideas are simple, Cohen said, but no one else is tackling them. A recent conversation with a Google News engineer illuminates the difficult of attracting bright engineers to tackle problems of journalism. “They listened to my complaint about RSS feeds and they’re like, ‘Well, RSS feeds will eventually go away.’ Well, they’re not away yet!” she said. Engineers “tend not to be interested in solving today’s problems but future problems,” she said.

The Reporters’ Lab website, too, will be a public-facing resource. Managing editor Tyler Dukes is charged with writing about what the team is learning as well as how other journalists are using tools in unexpected ways to aid reporting. Dukes writes software reviews and posts FOIA’d documents, transcripts, and databases.

The project is not just about generating solutions but identifying who else is doing so, or at least trying. It is a collaborative effort to help journalists focus on the core product in a world of increasing demands of distractions.

“What we’re trying to do is find ways to cut time out of doing drudgery work in reporting,” Cohen said, “and get us back out into the field to do the good work.”

Photo of beakers by tk-link used under a Creative Commons license

Where’s the money coming from? Fresh Pew data on the uncertain economics of newspapers

Posted: 05 Mar 2012 05:30 AM PST

It’s a story that wouldn’t exactly merit a “BREAKING” crawl on CNN: American newspapers aren’t in great financial shape. But a new report from Pew’s Project for Excellence in Journalism fleshes out that fact, showing that within the industry there’s quite a bit of diversity in how well newspapers are adjusting to the disruption of their business models.

Pew found that, while some are doing better than others, the gap between digital and print revenues is still yawning, and that efforts at expanding the digital base — through daily deals, mobile advertising, or other experiments — are only slowly having an impact. Even with digital advertising rising at most newspapers, the report found a 7:1 ratio of print advertising dollars lost to digital advertising gained in 2010.

Perhaps what’s most remarkable about the report is how Pew put it together: using private data from 38 newspapers in six companies, as well as interviews with executives from 13 media companies. At the newspapers surveyed:

  • For every $11 in print revenue, they still earn just $1 on the digital side.
  • Digital revenue is still dominated by display ads and classifieds, which account for about three-quarters of all digital revenue. Daily deals make up about 5 percent; mobil advertising, just 1 percent.
  • Non-traditional business — digital marketing, web services, events, and the like — generated only about $6,500 per quarter at the median newspaper studied.

Aside from the data, the report’s interviews with executives offers some troubling evidence of the industry’s resistance to change. This sentiment from one of the surveyed execs seems to capture it:

“Probably the most difficult thing is to change a corporate culture because you don’t really have the power to do it,” noted one executive. “You can change CEOs, executive VPs, digital VPs. You can wave this magic wand all you want. But at the end of the day, the troops in the field hunker down. From our company, and I would venture for other organizations as well, the most difficult thing to do is change it. “

In order to get access to newspapers’ numbers, Pew promised to keep their identities secret. That’s a very reasonable tradeoff to get access to granular data, but nonetheless, there are points in the report where a bit more background data would be useful in interpreting the numbers. Where Pew provides it, it illustrates that “success” can have different meanings. For instance, Pew notes that the newspaper with the highest growth rate in digital revenue saw that number grow 63 percent in a year — a truly remarkable number. But the study points out this newspaper was a small one (20,000 circulation) where, even with that kind of growth, digital revenue made up only 6 percent of total revenue. And that growth was driven, in part, by a hiring boom in the city’s major industry. In other words, that kind of growth won’t be easily replicable elsewhere.

2011 saw seemingly every decent-sized paper in the country adopt daily deals — either Groupon or one of its clones — as a revenue stream, and they provided newspapers with different results. One paper said deals made up 55 percent of digital revenue — but the average across papers was only 5 percent.

There was one universal truth, and it’s a depressing one: Mobile isn’t big money yet. More than half the papers surveyed told Pew they generated zero ad dollars on mobile platforms in 2011. At least the trend line’s moving in the right direction: Mobile increased from 0.1 percent of digital revenue in late 2010 to 0.9 percent in late 2011. (At least newspapers aren’t alone in struggling to make money from mobile ads.)

One thing the survey does is back up the other recent Pew report that found banner ads make up the bulk of advertising on news websites. What this new study tells us is the reason why: It’s what the ad staff is pushing hardest. Of the papers surveyed, 92 percent said digital display and banner ads were a “major focus” of their sales, versus 40 percent for targeted advertising and zero percent for video advertising. And as much as executives talk about retooling their ad departments, their staffing tells a different story:

On average, papers deployed the largest percentage of their sales staffers, about half of them, to sell both traditional and digital advertising. About a third of the sales staff primarily sold print ads. The fewest number of reps, about one-tenth of the sales staff, were primarily selling digital. On average, of the papers studied, papers had one digital ad rep for every three print ad representatives.

The thread that runs through the report is culture change within newspapers. The executives Pew spoke with offer a kind of dissonance, advocating the virtues of the digital game while bemoaning the state of their staffs. Another excerpt:

The core cultural issue, executives told us, is the tension between the old ways and the new ways — and some of that stems from newspaper leadership that came of age in the days of monopoly newspapers and 20% profit margins. “We haven’t needed innovative people,” explained one executive. “So you get what you need. The kind of people that came into this industry were more operationally focused, executors instead of innovator risk takers.”

Or this:

Another executive described much the same problem this way: His company had too many publishers with “ink in their blood” and too many sales directors steeped in the old days. He added that the newspaper business had changed substantially and that companies had to adjust their traditional ways of thinking. “You’ve got monopolies that are no longer monopolies.”

The report ends on a decidedly gray note, asking executives to look ahead five years. Some predict cutbacks on home delivery days; one said papers would “limp along” and predicted doom if another recession comes. It’s on the second to last page where the report turns shockingly blunt: “Still others said that at this point, they just didn’t know what the revenue structure would look like going forward.”

Sabtu, 03 Maret 2012

Nieman Journalism Lab

Nieman Journalism Lab


To learn what works (quickly), Canada’s National Post dives deep into ebooks

Posted: 02 Mar 2012 08:00 AM PST

Christie Blatchford demands eyeballs. In Canadian journalism, this is an almost universal truth — the controversial columnist is often derided, but almost always read. So it makes sense that, after poaching her (back, as it happens) from the rival Globe and Mail in June 2011, The National Post would want to use her writing in an early foray into a new medium — ebooks.

The Post, one of Canada’s two national newspapers, has undertaken a unique approach to publishing and selling ebooks: sheer volume. Since December, in less then three months, the paper’s published six ebooks — at a time when even many larger news organizations are testing the waters more hesitantly. The Post is trying it all — long-form reportage, columnist best-ofs, investment advice, and even movie reviews — all in an effort to learn what works as quickly as possible.

The Post’s first ebook was The Long Road, originally a web feature exploring Canada’s role in the Afghanistan war, and an archive of articles spanning from 2001 to present. Since then, ebooks from the Post have included a collection of Terence Corcoran’s columns on Nortel’s collapse; a compilation of pieces by conservative columnist Barbara Kay; an investment guide from personal-finance columnist Jonathan Chevreau; and a bundling of positive movie reviews from Chris Knight. Their most successful book is also their most recent: Killed Because They Were Girls, written mostly by Blatchford as she covered the Shafia “honor killings” trial in Ontario.

“We think the combination of it being a newsworthy story, and it being Christie’s writing, led to it doing well,” Duncan Clark, vice president of digital media at the National Post, told me. “That’s been instructive of what we’re going to do afterward.” The Post isn’t releasing sales figures for any of their ebooks. But Clark did say that those focusing on specific stories have tended to outsell mere collections of columnists’ work.

The Post plans to keep up the pace: It aims to publish about two books per month for the foreseeable future.

Publishing on this scale and in this volume has left the Post in a unique position — they are one of the first publications in Canada to actually pump out timely, topical ebooks to readers, giving them a market advantage. Most of the titles sell for 99 cents, although Blatchford’s goes for $1.99 and The Long Road for $2.99. They’re available on all the usual ebook platforms, including for the Canadian Kobo e-reader. Kindle, Kobo, and iBooks are the three most popular formats, Clark said, but there is no clear leader between the three. Some have sold more on the Kobo, for instance, while others have seen more success on iBooks (like Killed Because They Were Girls).

Though the Post’s digital team had been considering ebook opportunities, the catalyst came through a proposal from HarperCollins Canada. They ended up partnering with the publishing house, who acts as distributor for the National Post-controlled content.

“We didn’t come into this assuming we knew anything,” says Clark. “That’s part of the reason we wanted a relationship with a distributor.” HarperCollins is in charge of merchandising, meaning they place books in the online stores and make sure they’re seen on virtual shelves. Clark says this is key to reaching new readers — for the books, and for the paper.

Marketing for the ebooks has been primarily focused around the Postmedia Network, which owns the National Post and a large number of regional and city newspapers across Canada. This includes traditional ads in the network papers and online. (Today, at least, the front page of the National Post website features a prominent ad for the Kay ebook in its top right corner.) Editors have also been plugging ebooks in relevant places like chats with the authors.

The allure of ebooks to news organizations is obvious: the potential to take work produced for one medium and — with a little repackaging — sell it in a different one, one where readers are more accustomed to paying for content. Clark admits that right now the paper is focused on experimentation, gathering data on what works and what doesn’t before focusing on a route with a financial pay-off.

“We’re conscious about not creating fatigue,” he says. “And if the data says that’s happening, we’ll re-evaluate.”

On the record with NPR chief Gary Knell: ‘Radio isn’t going away, it’s going everywhere’

Posted: 02 Mar 2012 07:00 AM PST

Gary Knell

Gary Knell, now three months on the job as CEO of NPR, made his first major leadership decision last week by promoting Kinsey Wilson, the head of digital media, to also oversee news and radio programming. It’s the clearest signal yet that NPR, formerly National Public Radio, isn’t just radio anymore.

“Radio isn’t going away,” he tweeted, “its going everywhere.” (Forgive him the missing apostrophe.)

Knell was in Boston this week to meet with NPR’s Digital Services division, local stations, and donors. I sat down with him yesterday.

A few highlights: He said Wilson’s new role as chief content officer is meant to erase the distinction between platforms in the newsroom. He said the network plans to research and develop new programs that reach beyond NPR’s core (and aging) radio audience, targeting younger and more racially, geographically, and politically diverse listeners. And he said he expects small stations would go dark were Congress to cut funding this year to the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.

In this lightly edited transcript of our conversation, I began by asking Knell about NPR’s big investment in connected cars.

Gary Knell: Look, the car is 50 percent or so, plus, of the radio audience today, just in general. And because the technology in automobiles — and maybe because Americans are living in their cars more, sometimes you wonder if we’re going to be sleeping and eating in our cars, as well, because of traffic or what have you — the digital technology, the computer technology in cars is just exponentially growing.

“If we’re not on these platforms, we’re dead.”

So now you have voice-activation systems in Fords and other car manufacturers, which are just going to get faster, smaller, and cheaper every year, and NPR’s gotta be on there. Public radio’s gotta be a player. If we’re not on these platforms, we’re dead. This isn’t a choice of whether — it’s really a choice of how. And we decided to go first with Ford and build this connected-cars platform which is now rolling out in all their 2012 vehicles, and it’s a great asset.

…[NPR] is also a membership organization that was built to promote a local set of stations which have a relevance in their local markets. And that’s part of what NPR is and needs to continue to be. So Kinsey [Wilson]‘s role is also, not just making sure that NPR’s global and national news coverage is being accessible anywhere people can find it, but also making sure that this localism is also accessible in as many places as people can find them. So if you’re in Boston, you want to know what’s going on in Boston. Maybe if I’m a Bostonian living in L.A. and I’m lonely, I want to hear what’s going on in Boston, too. And now we have the capability to make that happen.

Andrew Phelps: I wonder what you’ve heard from stations as you’ve gone around talking to them, what some of the challenges are, making sure that those relationships are happy.
Knell: Look, I come from a station background in television, and I was the guy seconded to work with all of the stations…

“Stations are needing to embrace their raison d'être locally, and I think that that's probably a good thing.”

It’s a very scary environment for media companies, for media in general right now. There is a disaggregation of media that is impacting everyone…What is an authoritative figure as individuals become brands? There’s much less loyalty.

Look, when I worked on Capitol Hill back in the ’70s, The Washington Post, The New York Times, and The Wall Street Journal, and maybe CBS News, what they said was like — that was it! If they said something bad about you or good about you, it was all. Now, today, it absolutely doesn’t have that relevance anymore. Because people are playing much more to the echo chambers that exist politically in the news media.

So the stations are needing to embrace their raison d’être locally, and I think that that’s probably a good thing…It’s making them focus on what’s really important and providing an essentially service locally. So even though it’s a challenging time, it’s probably a time to reevaluate and rethink and improve your local service, and I think that’s a good thing.

Phelps: I want to ask you about how NPR plans to deal with its political enemies in 2012, as it looks toward getting what little funding it does from the federal government, from taxpayers. I think some of NPR’s fans have accused the network of shying away from defending itself and not stepping out in front. I wonder if you hear that criticism, if anything will change about the way that NPR presents itself to the world, to Congress, how you plan to fend off a lot of that inevitable, hateful criticism.
Knell: I think, look, we’re about creating a civic, civil dialogue for the country, and you’re going to get different people from different political persuasions who are going to agree to those definitions or not. And the whole concept of public funding comes down to a question of, Do you believe that there’s a public interest in supporting that civic, civil dialogue? Which, to me, is an educational investment in the country. And I view it as education. We’re in the education business, really.
“We’ve got to make the case for why this is essential to the American public and talk about the work that we’re actually doing.”

It’s very important for Americans to understand what’s going on in Syria, because it does affect them. And it does affect the military budget and whether we’re going to have some conflagration which they’re going to have pay for, so that we can make correct decisions and our political leaders can make correct decisions. So I think these kinds of things are important investments publicly.

I’m not naive to the fact that others may disagree with that, especially at a time when all public spending is under scrutiny, and we’re going to have to compete against Head Start and food stamps and military budgets and homeland security and all of these important things that the public funds — and schools — so we’ve got to make the case. And we’ve got to make the case for why this is essential to the American public and talk about the work that we’re actually doing.

[...]

We have an ombudsman, a terrific ombudsman, who will respond to accusations of bias. I don’t think — on the whole, I think it is pretty hard to find that bias. But I’m not unaware of the debate which is really about what is the essential nature of government, and what should the government be funding. And we’re going to have to make our case based upon the work that we do. And hopefully people will understand that and decide to agree with us, that it’s an important thing to keep funding.

[...]

We get almost nothing from the federal government, but for certain stations in the system, especially those in less populated states, where you don’t have the numbers of big companies and philanthropists and other people who could theoretically provide more resources, [it's] going to be a huge chunk out of their budgets, to the point where some of them could inevitably go dark, and you will have news deserts in the country and no one covering adequately the state capitals in certain states in this country, and I don’t think that’s a good thing. It’s not good for taxpayers, and it’s not good in general. But we’re going to have to make the case, and I’m not Pollyanna-ish about it. It’s going to be hard work, and we’ll see what happens.

Phelps: I guess that’s where the trade-association part comes in, because a lot of the people hurt by the funding cuts, like you said, would be the stations. And so by defending NPR, you’re in a way having to defend money that’s not actually really not going to NPR, it’s going to stations. I have to think that’s a challenge, if nothing else, from a marketing perspective.
Knell: Well, it’s very hard to understand, and you know, part of me wants to do like a Schoolhouse Rock video of “how a bill becomes law.”

It’s very hard to even explain to people because it’s kind of a Rube Goldberg-type system that was invented over 40 years ago. And think about how the media world has changed in the last 40 years. It’s mind-boggling. I mean there were three television networks and PBS. That was it! No cable, no Internet, no nothing.

And think about the world today. And then the question is, does public radio or public television — does it play a unique role in the media landscape that the American public should spend scarce resources to keeping that system alive? And we’ve got to make that case. So we’re working on it every day.

Jumat, 02 Maret 2012

Nieman Journalism Lab

Nieman Journalism Lab


What kind of challenges does the L.A. Times face in creating a membership program?

Posted: 01 Mar 2012 12:30 PM PST

From a marketing standpoint, the word “paywall” is pretty terrible. Right away, it tells you there’s a barrier between you and what you want, and the only way to negotiate it is to pay.

So it’s not surprising that media companies, used to working with words, are using alternatives. The New York Times uses “digital subscription”, and Gannett’s also talking “subscription model”. And the Los Angeles Times is billing its new approach a “membership program.” Granted, it’s a membership program that limits access to Times stories based on payment — but the Times promises “retail discounts, deals and giveaways, as well as access to digital news.”

The Times plan isn’t surprising as a paid-content strategy — more and more papers are asking readers to pay, even within the Tribune empire. But the Times’ approach is worth looking at from the standpoint of how a newspaper brands itself, and how that can entice readers to pay for a product that has been free-ish for a long time.

When I spoke with Emily Smith, the LAT’s senior vice president for digital, she said she believes readers already understand the importance of the journalism the paper produces — a membership approach is an attempt to build on that. “We want to make this a great value, to be a part of the L.A. Times,” she said. “I think the burden is on us to prove that. I welcome that.”

What would a L.A. Times membership look like? Smith said benefits could include free or discounted ebooks from the Times, which began publishing them last fall with reporter Christopher Goffard’s A Nightmare Made Real. Members could also get special access to events the Times hosts, such as their annual festival of books or movie screenings. But Smith didn’t want to get too detailed about the membership program, which is supposed to officially launch on Monday, March 5. She said the Times wants to be careful not to define the benefits of membership too strictly and limit their room to launch new features or perks.

While that flexibility may be an asset for future growth, it makes how the Times defines membership to its readers all the more important. Smith told me the move is “not a marketing-copy trick,” that the Times really wants to reshape the connection between a newspaper and its community. “It is definitely a shift from what newspapers have been using to describe their relationship with readers historically,” she said. “It just reflects the times we are in.”

A matter of definitions

It’s still an odd thing to consider, the idea of a newspaper having members instead of subscribers. Readers historically paid an access fee that provided them with a day’s worth of news and ads; whatever connection existed beyond that was likely found on the editorial pages or, if you needed to sell a used car, the classifieds. There was little prestige or badge of honor that went along with reading — or identifying with — most newspapers; at most you got a box with the newspaper’s logo on it to attach to your mailbox.

Membership clearly implies something more, a means of aligning yourself with a group or organization that either shares your beliefs or provides a service or product above and beyond what you could do for yourself. I’m a AAA member (and have been since college — thanks Aunt Rose!) for the simple reason that I wouldn’t be able to fix my car were it to break down in the middle of nowhere. In high school, I — like many of you, don’t lie — was a member of the Columbia House CD club because they (theoretically) provided me with access to more music than I was willing to walk down to the record store to get by myself.

In recent years, news organizations have experiments in programs that offer readers benefits outside of news, but those are typically attached to promotions with local advertisers or Groupon-esque deal programs like the New York Times Times Limited. The newer nonprofit online news organizations like MinnPost use the language of membership to secure donations, sometimes promoting hosted events as incentive to join. While there’s no clear comparison to a membership program in newspapers, public media provides some examples: We’re all familiar with local NPR or PBS pledge drives that regularly asks the audience to contribute funds to help stay on the air. This is a system with a number of physical, as well as psychic, benefits — not least the endorphin rush from knowing you support your local station and they’ve thanked you for it on air.

Lessons from public radio

Jay Clayton, a consultant who works with public media stations on strategy and marketing for their fundraising, said those infamous tote bags, coffee mugs and more, are less member benefits than enticements. While there are a number of public media outlets that offer exclusive events or discounts through listener/viewer programs, the phrase “membership” has a loose meaning at most stations, easily interchangeable with “contribution support.”

Still, the mugs, bags, shirts, and the rest do provide public media fans a kind of totem and means of self-identifying that acts as a way to spot kindred types elsewhere in their community. They create a kind of ad hoc membership group even if a formal one doesn’t exist. That group, as real or loosely defined as they may be, make for a solid block of (paying) supporters once pledge time comes around.

“The format will always be the cause for giving,” Clayton said. “The mugs and extras act as a catalyst for giving a certain amount and giving at a certain time.” What Clayton means by that is the audience goes into the whole thing knowing public radio survives off donations. Yes, there are those who don’t support public radio and TV, but enough do to keep stations solvent. The proposition is different with newspapers, he said, because the nature of online news has changed how people associate their money with keeping their paper afloat.

Though public media would seem a good example of memberships as a means of supporting journalism, the structural differences with for-profit media show there will be plenty of challenges in making a similar system work for newspapers like the L.A. Times. Public media in all its forms has a kind of implicit appeal for donations, and newspapers don’t, Clayton said. That’s important, he said, because it’s the seed that motivates people to spend money to support news in their community. Absent any kind of physical benefits, the idea of a membership — whether you have a card or just nod to a person with a “I heart NPR” shirt — is secondary to that. For the Times, or any other newspaper looking to create a membership program, they must not only find a way to entice people to make that first step to join, but also demonstrate why their membership community is worthwhile.

“Unless there is interest from the beginning, all the mugs and extras are not going to provoke them to donate,” he said.

Photo by Leo Reynolds used under a Creative Commons license.

With new iPhone app, News.me moves toward a ‘purpose-built network’ for sharing news

Posted: 01 Mar 2012 08:00 AM PST

Remember how disappointed people were, around Halloween of last year, when Google Reader was suddenly stripped of its social features and redesigned to look like the rest of Google’s properties?

Robin Sloan lamented:

It’s like I had these great traveling companions on a long journey across an unfamiliar landscape — think forests, rivers, hills — and now, after like…a bear attack in the night…we’ve been split up. Scattered. No sign of anybody anywhere.

Hellooo? Just an echo.

For many users, Google Reader was a tight, private, conversational network. But it was doomed never to be compatible with Google’s belated embrace of social media and a network — Google+ — designed for scale.

“I think because Google wasn’t quite paying attention to [Reader], it never built in the incentives to grow that network as large as it could possibly be,” said Jake Levine, the general manager at News.me.

And that was its charm. “It was hard for people to figure out. So those barriers, those product problems…those bugs were features, because it limited the size of the network and it made it inherently more conversational,” he said.

Reader was effectively a purpose-built network, like Instagram or Foursquare, a place for people to gather around a single thing — in this case, news. Now News.me is trying to create the same thing, starting with a new iPhone app out today.

News.me is in the category of apps (Percolate, Flud, formerly Summify) that cut through the din of social media and serve personalized story recommendations based on what a user’s friends are sharing. But News.me wants to stand out by becoming its own social network. A user can import friends from Twitter and Facebook, but what happens in the app stays in the app. Buzzfeed-style “reactions” on stories (ha!, wow, awesome, sad, really?) are not visible elsewhere — like Instagram, News.me has no desktop interface.

“Not only is discovery a challenge on networks like Twitter and Facebook, in that there’s so much stuff, but conversations are a challenge…These networks are evolving from conversational media to broadcast media,” Levine said. There are a lot of people you might follow whose news judgment you don’t necessarily trust.

“So we asked ourselves, how do we build something that takes the discovery value of Twitter and Facebook and combine that with the ease of use and conversational nature of a platform like email” — still the No. 1 way that people share news.

News.me iPhone app screen shot

When we last covered News.me in September, the company had spun out from Bitly and ditched its paid content model. There isn’t a business plan yet. (One of the company’s principal investors is big brother Betaworks.) In typical startup fashion, Levine said he is focused on building a large user base before figuring out how to make money.

The iPad app, previously $0.99 a week or $34.99 a year, was launched in April 2011 but didn’t get much traction. The News.me daily email digest, launched at the same time, “consistently had high engagement and continued to grow,” Levine said, with open and clickthrough rates averaging above 40 percent. So the iPhone app is drawing on what Levine sees as the “latent network” of the email product.

It’s early and the app is basic. News.me is a “read-only” consumption app, for now. You can’t yet share articles within the News.me ecosystem. And that’s the challenge for the company: With purpose-built networks like Foursquare and Instagram, the consumer and the producer are the same person — the creating happens inside the app. With News.me, users are sharing things created elsewhere.

One clever feature available now demonstrates how this might work down the road: Whenever you “favorite” a tweet on Twitter, that link is automatically ingested into your News.me Reading List. It’s dead-simple bookmarking.

Call the nascent network a niche or call it a silo, but news organizations are also experimenting with the “closed” approach. With Facebook apps such as WSJ Social and the Washington Post Social Reader, the experience occurs entirely inside Facebook, keeping the reader captive. Those apps may not drive traffic back to the home page, but they do serve up more ads and increase time spent.

Levine said he will watch carefully to see how users adapt to the network, or the other way around. That’s more useful than tallying download numbers.

“The download number is an indicator of how good our PR is, not how good the product is. What matters is what happens after launch. Is it growing? Do we have a group of users that come back to it every single freakin’ day? And are they telling their friends about it? Those are the metrics that we’re paying attention to.”

The newsonomics of crossover

Posted: 01 Mar 2012 07:00 AM PST

The signs are everywhere — the signs of crossover. We’re not there yet, but publishers are starting to sense that the time when their business models become more about digital and less about print gets closer every day.

Since the web’s dawn, publishers have lived in a mainly print/somewhat digital world. We’re on the brink of a heavily digital/somewhat print world. The difference means hundreds of billions of dollars, euros, pounds, and yen to content creators and distributors. Get it right, and you win the prize: America’s Next Top (Business) Model.

Let’s take a top-line look at the data that tells us we’re approaching crossover — we’ll return to this topic often, as a defining one for this year and next — and the newsonomics of that crossover. Some quick datapoints:

  • The Money: First, the advertising money. As we’ve pointed out, digital advertising ($39.5 billion) is projected to roar past print (newspaper + magazine) ad spend ($33.8 billion) in 2012. eMarketer’s chart here is the most instructive, indicative of the growing chasm. (By 2016, the spread from digital to print projects as $62 billion to $32 billion.) Then, the circulation money. All-access paid content models — from The New York Times to Gannett to Time Inc. and the L.A. Times — is somewhere between a high-level strategy and a desperation maneuver. With ad revenue tanking, only circulation revenue can fill part of the crater, so newspaper and magazine companies are going to bundled circulation. They are madly trying to stay up with readers, who are way ahead of them in adopting the tablet; all-access (print, tablet, smartphone, online) subscription plans are a recognition that the present and future are digital.
  • The Audience: People are crossing over to digital reading ever more quickly, especially as the tablet becomes a replacement for the paper. Longer tablet session times grab minutes from print, as well as online and broadcast. Even in public radio, the number of digital, largely streaming minutes is growing rapidly, with NPR in the midst of quantifying that crossover. In TV, streaming minutes are on a wild ride, but still nowhere close to catching “TV” as we know it — TV still beats streaming 50-1.
  • The Product Portfolio: Look at where product creation is burgeoning. Take a look in iTunes at Condé Nast’s iPad apps as one index of that. It’s not just B2C. Take the case of B2B publisher UBM. In a good interview with PaidContent, CEO David Levin talks about exiting certain print and content properties as he rightsizes his digital portfolio.
  • The Devices: As the iPad 3 comes onto the market, we’re headed toward 50 percent penetration of tablets and e-readers. We’re already at 29 percent, only two years into the iPad. Expect 50 percent of adults by 2015. In the U.S., 48 percent of adults now have smartphones, a number that will keep marching higher. In Europe, numerous countries have reached 33 percent.

So how do publishers play the crossover game? If there were a magic formula, publishers would happily buy one. Yet, the crossover is so complex and so fast-moving that we are reminded of Einstein at the blackboard, and his observation: “We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.”

A print-to-web translation: Simply counting dollars, subscribers, pageviews, and unique visitors won’t get us to crossover.

With digital mobility upending conventional truths held as recently as a couple of years ago (“readers only consume news snippets online”; “we’re stuck with the digital ad formats we have”), navigating the crossover is increasingly complex.

What will help us figure it out? For publishers, emerging crossover strategies should be based on good metrics (see “The newsonomics of 2011 news metrics to watch”). But what to measure?

Let’s look at some conversion metrics, signposts on the road to a successful crossover — or a business implosion along the way.

Advertising revenue

  • What percent of print ad loss is made up by digital ad gain? This is the crossover metric driving much of John Paton’s Digital First Media/Journal Register Company strategy. With print advertising down now more than 50 percent in 10 years in the U.S., and even diving more quickly now in some parts of Europe, replacement ad revenue is at the top of the crossover list. In 2011, Journal Register made up about 95 percent of its print ad revenue loss. It intends to hit the crossover mark — making more in digital revenues than it is losing in print revenues — this year.

    Evening the print loss with the digital gain is the first big step in creating new sustainable news business models. Last year, U.S. newspapers, as a whole (as summed up in Newspaper Association of America data), lost eight times more in print ad revenue than they were able to gain in digital ad revenue.

    Why is JRC apparently meeting this crossover challenge better?

    First, the company is hell-bent on selling digital advertising of all kinds, having introduced dozens of new products in its marketplaces, orienting its sales staff squarely at digital. Second, JRC operates in smaller markets, and those have suffered less print ad revenue loss than larger city dailies. Or as Paton would put it: stacks of digital dimes can almost add up to digital dollars, and when they do, the promised land of growing digital EBITDA is in sight.

  • What percent of ad sales are coming from new customers and new products? There are a bunch of ways to measure this one. Essentially, we’re looking for the crossover from milking existing customers to aggressively finding new ones. One we’ve seen cited here and there is the percentage of digital ad revenue that is digital-only — meaning not bundled with print ads. The wrinkle here: Every publishing company uses its own “allocation” metrics; deciding how much of bundled ad sales are credited to print and how much to digital. So what “digital-only” means can be an exercise in Clintonian (Bill more than Hillary) linguistics.

    At best, the digital-only number is a proxy for news and magazine companies’ ability to compete head-to-head in the digital marketplace against non-legacy ad sellers. Combined reach (print + digital) remains a quite salable proposition, but when print props up digital — and publishing sales people continue to undervalue, or “throw in”, digital — digital sales competitiveness is undercut.

Other potential conversion metrics in advertising:

  • At what point do you double the number of advertisers you have? With major metros historically selling to a tenth or so of merchants in their markets (“The newsonomics of eight percent reach“), and many of those merchants having shifted their spending to non-newspaper companies, one solution is to reach many new, if smaller-spending, customers.
  • At what point does more than a third of your ad revenue come from selling other companies’ products? Everyone from Advance to Gannett to Hearst to Tribune is selling more than their own print and online inventory. They are creating regional/national ad agencies, attempting to be local merchants’ best friends, selling search engine and social marketing, mobile products and more. Hearst Media Services products, as offered in Houston, is indicative of the approach. A number of companies tell me such revenue could equal a third of their total “ad” sales by 2015. The sooner that level is reached, the greater the growth in overall digital ad reach.
  • At what point do ad formats other than simple cost-per-thousand (CPM) impression-based advertising equal a quarter or more of publishers’ revenues? Look at the Interactive Advertising Bureau reports on the fastest growing forms of digital advertising. It’s pay-for-performance, video, rich media, social, sponsorship, and lead generation types that are fastest growing — all areas outside the comfort zones of most publishers.

Audience

  • When will publishers find reader revenue accounting for 50 percent or more of overall revenues? Circulation revenue used to contribute about 20 percent of U.S. newspapers’ overall revenue; the number in Europe often reached 35 percent or higher. Worldwide, in my work with Outsell, we’ve found the the number now to be just shy of 30 percent globally. Given ad revenue declines and steep circulation price increases, publishers are coming to depend on readers’ for a greater and greater percentage of revenue. Though the amount of total revenue is of course the most important number, many successful publishers will find the 50 percent plateau a more comfortable one, long-term.
  • When will publishers “authenticate,” or register, 50 percent or more of print subscribers? Two years ago, The New York Times found that fewer than 50 percent of its print readers had registered for nytimes.com. That number is now at 70 percent, the result of a major push tied to last year’s digital subscription efforts. Many dailies getting into the paywall/digital circulation business have found quite small percentages of such registrations. Getting the number to 50 percent and more is key to proving out the new all-access reader business model — and convincing print readers of the now-greater value proposition they’re enjoying.
  • When will publishers reach the 10 percent mark, adding new all-access, or digital-only, subscribers who are not current print subscribers? Today’s digital circulation pushes are mostly targeted to current customers. The immediate goals: Keep print subscribers from canceling print, since they can no longer move to free online, or upsell print subscribers, one way or another, for digital access. That’s well and good, but longer-term publishers need new and younger customers. So if even 10 percent of their new signups were non-print buyers, that would be a significant number.
  • What percent of print readers will be tablet-mainly by 2015? Few readers are known to be tablet-only to publishers. We’re assuming most are hybrid readers, a little desktop, a little smartphone, some print and some tablet. By the time we have iPad 14 (holographic, perhaps), some top-rank publishers expect many of their long-time customers to be tablet-mainly readers. They expect the mix to be tablet/smartphone/online, with print fading away (and taking as many of its costs blessedly with it). If the number is 50 percent by 2015, then publishers have only a few years to greatly scale down their print operations for the new era.

Costs

  • When will publishers be able to devote more than 50 percent of their expenses to content and sales? Traditionally, many newspaper publishers find that two-thirds of their costs are outside the two areas key to their digital futures — content production and sales. Newsprint, presses, trucks, expensive buildings, and more were once easily justified, but are now millstones. As publishers jettison these costs, getting to the 50 percent level to fund the new business is a key.

Finally, there’s one other scary crossover number to consider: When will ad spend meet up with time spent, and maybe cross over there, too?

While TV’s ad take equals the time consumers spend with the medium (42.2 percent of U.S. ad revenue compared to 42.5 percent of time spent), according to eMarketer, newspapers take in 15 percent of the national ad spend, but now only account for 4 percent of time spent with media. Magazines, too, are vulnerable to equalizing forces: Their take is 9.7 percent of the ad pie, while they serve up a thin slice of time spent at 2.8 percent.

Destined to gain share: Internet, with four points less revenue than time — and mobile, with time spent 10x ad revenue. So in this equalization, as newspapers and magazines inevitably lose more core revenue, their potential upside comes in those two categories.